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Matt Peters and Ryan Boldt decided to dust off their calculators this afternoon and do some 'rithmatic. They were appalled at what they discovered. Time for some sobering statistics. You might want to prepare a barf bag:
- 6,201. Friends, this is not the title of the newest Rush album. This is a number we need to remember over the course of the next four years and especially during the next election. 6,201 is the COMBINED margin of victory across the 14 most closely contested Conservative ridings in Canada. The COMBINED margin of victory. This is how close the election actually was. In each of these races the Conservatives had a margin of victory of less than 800votes. Most margins were much, much smaller. See below for a statistical breakdown.
- 14. You need to remember this number for two reasons. Firstly, it is the number of seats the Conservatives currently have above and beyond their majority. In these 14 contentious races, if there had been even a slightly more focused effort by the parties on the Left to consolidate their voter bases we could have easily swayed the balance of power away from the Conservatives and prevented their majority (only 6,201 votes total were needed, spread across 14 ridings). 14 is also significant because, if you can believe it, 14 votes was the actual margin of victory for the Conservatives over the Liberals in the eastern Ontario riding of Nipissing-Timiskaming. In this riding 11,357 people voted for the NDP or the Green party. 27,887 registered electors didn't vote at all. Only 14 votes were needed to defeat the Conservatives. Let that sink in.
Here are the numbers in each of the 14 most closely contested Conservative ridings. The vote splitting is very disturbing:
Riding: Labrador (Newfoundland & Labrador)
Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
4,234 4,003 231 2,235
Nipissing-Timiskaming (Ontario)
Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
15,507 15,493 14 11,357
Bramalea-Gore-Malton (Ontario)
Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
19,907 19,369 538 18,149
Etobicoke Centre (Ontario)
Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
21,661 21,635 26 9,185
Saskatoon Rosetwon biggar (Saskatchewan)
Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
14,652 14,114 538 1,323
Elmwood-Transcona (Manitoba)
Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
15,280 14,996 284 2,678
Montmagny-L'islet-Kamouraska-Riveire-du-Loup (Quebec)
Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green/Bloc Combined
17,220 17,110 110 14,861
Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (Quebec)
Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green/Bloc Combined
22,460 21,683 777 12,183
Don Valley West (Ontario)
Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
22,992 22,353 639 7,983
Mississauga East-Cooksville (Ontario)
Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
18,782 18,121 661 9,989
Winnipeg South Centre (Manitoba)
Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
15,468 14,772 696 9,332
Yukon
Conservatives Liberals Margin of Victory NDP/Green Combined
5,422 5,290 132 5,345
Desenthe-Missinippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan)
Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
10,504 9,715 789 1,706
Palliser (Saskatchewan)
Conservatives NDP Margin of Victory Lib/Green Combined
15,850 15,084 766 2,892
Total numbers for the 14 ridings
Conservatives 2nd place Margin of Victory Rest of the left
219,939 213,738 6,201 103,873
You'll notice that these ridings are evenly distributed geographically throughout the country and the split affected the NDP and Liberals equally. Also, this list only represents the closest races. This is not a regional issue. It is indicative of what occurred throughout the country.
Across Canada 7,867,870 people voted Liberal, NDP or Green. 5,832,401 voted Conservative. This is a difference of over 2 million votes. Do not believe the hype. A government with 39.6% of the popular vote should not have a mandate to drive through fundamental changes in policy.
The Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance had the wherewithal to "unite the right" in 2003 and it seems that until the Left are able to arrive at a similar compromise or agreement they may very well be doomed to repeatedly collect 60% of the vote and wield 0% of the power.
* Dealing intelligently with the system we currently live in is the first part of our concern, but obviously when one becomes aware of how easy it is for the intentions of the voters to become distorted, it is hard not to conclude that some kind of electoral reform is needed. The system ought to be structured in such a way that supporting your party of choice in a straightforward manner doesn't have disastrous and counter-intuitive consequences. People shouldn't have to worry about this kind of electoral arcana.
We are 1 of only 4 countries in the industrialized world that still use the antiquated First Past The Post (FPTP) system in a world where nearly every other country has adopted a form of proportional representation or at the least a heavily modified form of FPTP, substantially different than the one we use (other FPTP countries include India, USA and England. Although the British held a referendum recently, which was defeated, about switching to a substantially modified form of FPTP called Alternative Vote). Arguments against proportional representation (PR) usually centre around the idea that it restricts regional representation and diversities, yet if that really is such a concern, surely we can develop a variant of PR or explore other options (like the British AV system mentioned above), that are capable of addressing the unique needs of our nation while ensuring that every single citizen's vote is counted, respected and valued. The one thing that is certain, is that our current system is demonstrably the worst at capturing the true intent of the voters.
It is almost unimaginable for electoral reform to be passed by the current regime so it is important we stay educated as an electorate and vote responsibly in the next election. Hopefully next time we can elect a government that will respect the importance of electoral reform and listen to our demands for representation that reflect the real will of our nation.
-Séb
